Wednesday, October 17, 2007

The Merits of the Throne Speech

Lost in the election speculation is just how bad the throne speech was. http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/2007/10/16/4581279-cp.html
There is hardly any proposal worth supporting. The Crime package: The mandatory minimums, for example, might appeal to Joe and Jane law and order and might be good politics, but they are disastrous stupid policy. The same can be said about the Conservatives environmental policies. The Conservatives intensity emissions based plan is a joke and the fact that the Conservatives are right to point out that Canada has no hope of meeting its Kyoto targets should not warrent the free pass the media is giving them on the subject. I can not think of single columnist or reporter that pointed out the obvious flaws of such an policy. That is not the only the thing media has given the Stephen Harper a pass on. Indeed, is the media so mesmerized by Stephen Harper’s tactical acumen that they let the Conservatives get repeatedly get away with ridiculous stupid talking points? For instance:

“Families now have real choice in child care through the Universal Child Care Benefit.”

Repeat after me; $100 a month is not a childcare plan. It is a redo of the family allowance, that Brain Mulroney, much to Stephen Harper’s delight, scrapped in the 1993. Harper, it should be noted, was against his “childcare” plan before he was for it. Stephen Harper: “Universality has been severely reduced: It is virtually dead as a concept in most areas of public policy. The family allowance program has been eliminated and unemployment insurance has been seriously cut back." http://www.canadians.org/wordwarriors/2006/jan-10.html He “flipped flopped”.

Google: Canada 1 # in “marijuana” and “Tom Cruise” searches.

"BERLIN, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Internet users in Egypt, India and Turkey are the world's most frequent searchers for Web sites using the keyword "sex" on Google search engines, according to statistics provided by Google Inc.
Germany, Mexico and Austria were world's top three searchers of the word "Hitler" while "Nazi" scored the most hits in Chile, Australia and the United Kingdom, data from 2004 to the present retrievable on the "Google Trends" Web site showed.
Chile also came in first place searching for the word "gay", followed by Mexico and Colombia.
The top searchers for other keywords were as follows (in order from first to third place):"

http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSPAR75016820071017?pageNumber=1

Dion Fails to Inspire

Dion needed to lay down some semblance of a vision and give some hope to the party faithful. He failed miserably.

He leveled the same tired and worn out criticisms and promised more of the same tepid policies. To date the only thing the Liberals have offered the faithful is the promise of “deep” corporate tax cuts. Harper mocked the political optics of such a move and so shall I. The Liberals are not going to out tax cut the Conservatives. If this the best the party can offer, they are doomed to loose the next election and doomed to loose badly.

It is hard to believe this hopelessly temperamentally conservative party was once lead by Trudeau. I have no trouble, however, believing that it was once lead by Paul Martin and John Turner and neither do other Canadians.

Harper calls The Liberals out on Afghanistan.

The Liberals have tried very hard to muddy the Afghan waters. They have said that they want to see Canada abandon its combat role in Kandahar province by February 2009. They have not, however, said that this means they want to see Canadian troops out of Kandahar by 2009. Stephen Harper called them out. He said the current Kandahar mission is curently focused on training and thereby implied that the Liberals can call the mission what they will it will involve combat so long as Canada is in Kandahar. He all but went on to say that the current mission, whatever the Liberals want to call it, will continue until 2011. I am glad he did this. It is high time Liberal Party commit to pulling Canadian troops out of Kandahar province by February 2009. If they think Canadians, especially Quebecers, will be fooled if they leave the troops in Kandahar province and proclaim the mission a non combat one, they are delusional. So long as Canadian troops are in Kandahar province, they will see combat.

G&M’s Jeffrey Simpson right “It's time to draw a federal line in the parliamentary sandbox”

“Or maybe Mr. Dion will pick a social program - national pharmacare, say - and stand on the other side of Mr. Harper's line by insisting Ottawa use its constitutionally affirmed spending power to negotiate a federal-provincial deal in an area of direct concern to all citizens.
It would be a fine national debate. On one side would stand the Conservatives opposing pharmacare as (a) an expensive, unnecessary program, (b) an intrusion into the sacred provincial jurisdiction over health, (c) a further expansion of government into the lives of Canadians, and (d) an insult to Quebec.
On the other would stand the Liberals proposing pharmacare as (a) a necessary extension of medicare, (b) a program once supported by at least five premiers during Mr. Martin's time as prime minister, (c) an affirmation of the federal government's relevance to citizens, and (d) the best way to restrain soaring drug costs.”

http://www.rbcinvest.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/PEstory/LAC/20071017/COSIMP17/Columnists/columnists/columnistsNational/1/1/3/

Universal Dental Care: It is Time


Justice Emmet Hall, whose 1964 report in many ways formed the foundation for Medicare , recommended that dental care be included. It is time Liberal Party commit itself to making Emmet Hall’s vision for a better healthy and fairer Canada more of a reality.

In Case Of An Election, Signs That Blogsephere Has Come Of Age.

It remains to be seen how big an impact the blogsephere might have on the next Federal election. However one sign that the blogsephere has arrived is if Layton employs the same target the Liberals first strategy that he employed during the last election, and there is some kind of popular black lash. Bloggers of all progressive stripes will not react kindly to such a strategy and will be the first to let Layton know.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Liberal's Political Hand: Policy

Atlantic Accord: The Atlantic Accord is good short term politics, terrible long term politics and even worse policy. Judging by all available evidence the Harper Williams feud will likely mean a Liberal sweep of Newfoundland. In this respect it without a doubt good short term politics. However, the absurdity of not including oil revenues as part of the equalization calculations is really beyond description. One can only wonder what kind of firestorm political and otherwise would be set off, if Alberta were to ask for similar deal.

Kyoto Accord: The Conservatives announced that the targets set under the Kyoto protocol are unattainable. The opposition parties disagree and there will be a lot of righteous indignation heard from them over this. The thing is, though, the targets are unattainable. Canada is not going to meet the 2012 Kyoto targets without buying emission credits and this just will not sell domestically. That is just the half off it. So long as Kyoto is the focus, the question will arise as to why Canada is not going to meet its targets and this will allow the Conservatives to offer up Liberal inaction as the reason why. There is no use going to war over something that is glaring false and the Liberals would do well to move on. Indeed, what the Liberals need to do is to focus the debate on how the various parties plan to reduce carbon emissions going forward. The Liberals have a plan, the semblance of a plan anyway, and the Conservatives have potential political piñata known as intensity based emissions. Call into question the effectiveness of the Conservative plan and then sit back and watch as environmentalists, academics, pundits and yes bloggers break it into a million pieces. Under intense scrutiny, I give such a plan no more than month and half, maybe two. As for the other parties, the Bloc’s reason for being means it is no position to offer up a plan and the NDP poise no realistic challenge to the Conservatives. Whether they have a good plan or not is moot. The NDP will not win the next election. The underlying message is thus this. Only the Liberals are both able and willing to tackle global warming and the Liberals will be in a position to commit Canada to the second round of Kyoto talks.

Early childhood education: The problem with the Liberals early childhood education was that it was not universal. As a result, the more the Liberals talked up the need for such a program the more inadequate and lackluster their proposal appeared and the attractive the Conservatives universal baby bonus became. Indeed many voters hedged their bets. They figured that a $1200 bird in their hand was better than 15% chance of nailing two in the bush. If the Liberals want to capture the imagination of Canadians by again promising an national early childhood education program they better make sure that they are able to deliver universal program and that they are able to deliver and all at once.

Afghanistan: Until recently the Liberals did not even have any decent Afghan talking points. The childish and silly “its their turn” has at long last morphed into something much more weighty. It has become the following: If other NATO countries are unwilling to share the economic, political, and military costs of deploying in the South, the mission is doomed. Either way, Canada will abandon its military mission in the South under a Liberal government in 2009. Either because someone else has assumed the burden or no one has and the mission is doomed to fail. However the policy is yet to catch up to their talking points. Liberals are still hedging their bets and have yet to commit to pulling Canadian troops out of Kandahar province by 2009. The party is playing semantics and seems willing to sanction a deal with the Conservatives that would see Canadian troops stay in Kandahar, but not in a non combat role, as if this is distinction with difference. Such a policy might not have immediate short term implications, but the party should note that should it sanction a longer stay in Kandahar, no matter what role, the party base, especially what is left of it in Quebec, will never forgive them.

Kelowna Accord: I do not have anything positive to say about the Kelowna Accord. It is just more money thrown after bad. The root cause of native poverty is not a lack of government money, but can rather be sourced back to the emphasis placed on communal property to exclusion of private property and manner by which government monies are distributed by the bands. That said, the fact that Kelowna Accord does nothing to address the underlying causes of Native poverty does not mean that Native poverty is any the less real and any effort to fight poverty, however superficially, is usually welcomed by the public. Furthermore, there is political payoff to pursuing a policy that has been agreed upon by all the principle players.


“Deep” Corporate Tax Cuts: A small reduction, such as the one the Conservatives are suggesting, will do just fine thank you very much. The Canadian corporate earnings are higher than anywhere else in the industrialized world and cost of doing business in Canada is cheaper than in Britain, the US, Italy, Germany, Japan, France. The promise of corporate tax cuts is nothing new for the Liberals. Beginning in 2000 the Liberals cut the corporate tax rate by 8%. That said, the optics of such a cut look better in 2007 than they did in 2005 for two reasons. One, the dollar is real concern and two the Liberals have rolled out much more effective talking points this time around. Indeed, Dion all but short circuited Layton's most likely line of attack.
"Some will say that a cut in corporate taxes is a right wing policy. I’m sure my friend Jack Layton will say this. But to believe this is to believe that Sweden, with its low corporate tax rate, is the hot bed of neo-conservatism while the United States, with its very high corporate tax rate, is a socialist paradise – or to quote Stephen Harper when he described Canada – “a second tier socialistic country”. A low corporate tax rate is not a right wing policy or a left wing policy. It is a sound policy."

All and all, should the Liberals force an election anytime they would not exactly be playing with the strongest hand, both from a policy perspective and from political perspective.

The Green Party Moves Around the NDP's Left Flank

With the release of their party platform, the Green Party has moved around the NDP’s left flank in two key areas and has matched the NDP in three other areas. In so doing the Green Party has challenged the NDP's claim to be Canada's most socially democratic party.


Whereas the NDP is still committed merely decriminalizing Marijuana, the Green party will legalize it.

Whereas the NDP remains silent on the "vacation gap” between Canada and Europe, the Green party will address the "vacation deficit" by giving Canadians an extra week of vacation a year.


The Green Party will match the NDP on several other issues.

Both the NDP and Green party support ban on all hand guns, semi automatic and fully automatic guns.

Both the NDP and Green party support a National pharmacare plan.

Both the NDP and Green party support a national $10 an hour minimum wage indexed to inflation.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

The Liberals Should Take Their Lumps On Tuesday; In The Long Run They Will Be Better Off.

The Liberals have no choice but to suffer the humiliation of not voting against the throne speech on Tuesday and worse being the one party keeping the government alive for the next couple of months.

This is not all bad. Consider the so called poison pill: the Conservatives are going to announce that targets set under the Kyoto protocol are unattainable. The thing is they are unattainable. Canada is not going to meet the 2012 Kyoto targets without buying emission credits and this just will not sell domestically. That is just the half off it. So long as Kyoto is the focus, the question will arise as to why Canada is not going to meet its targets and this will allow the Conservatives to offer up Liberal inaction as the reason why. The Liberals need to focus the debate on how the various parties plan to reduce carbon emissions going forward. The Liberals have a plan, the semblance of a plan anyway, and the Conservatives have potential political piñata known as intensity based emissions. Call into question the effectiveness of the Conservative plan and then sit back and watch as environmentalists, academics, pundits and yes bloggers break it into a million pieces. Under intense scrutiny, I give such a plan no more than month and half, maybe two. As for the other parties, the Bloc’s reason for being means it is no position to offer up a plan and the NDP poise no realistic challenge to the Conservatives. Whether they have a good plan or not is moot. The NDP will not win the next election. The underlying message is thus this. Only the Liberals are both able and willing to tackle global warming.

As for what Conservatives crime agenda etc, let them spend their wad. Only make sure to make plenty of noise while they are doing so. How do you make noise? You roll out policy. You include a nice mix of policy designed to tackle the big issues and controversial policy to catch the media’s and public’s attention. Hopefully by the time the Conservatives are finished, they will have run out of things to do just as the Liberals have wetted the public’s interest for their new policies.

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Dion with the Line of Week: "I cut bait and went fishing."

Stephen Harper said that the Liberals have a choice;“They have to fish or cut bait,”

Dion's comback was the best line of the week.

"I hope you have had a very good Thanksgiving,” Liberal leader Stephane Dion began, his entire existence, as usual, seeming to hang in the balance. “Some of you may ask where I went. Well, I decided to follow the advice of the Prime Minister. I cut bait and went fishing.”

http://www.macleans.ca/canada/features/article.jsp?content=20071010_145259_10124

This is Dion at his best. A little Impish. A very nice contrast to Angry Dad Harper.

Two Out Of Three Ain’t Bad

Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion accused Prime Minister Stephen Harper of wanting to rush into an election before more information is revealed about three investigations involving the Conservative party.
"I think the prime minister has a lot in his hands and I'm not surprised he's so willing to go into an election before Canadians know more about it," Dion said Friday.
Dion referred to an Elections Canada investigation into whether the Conservatives may have broken election financing laws during the Conservative party's 2006 election campaign, something the Tories deny and are fighting in Federal Court.
Dion said Harper must also deal with an OPP investigation into allegations that the municipal election in Ottawa was tampered with and that it involved the Conservative party's top organizer. The Conservatives have denied any involvement.
Dion also pointed to the federal privacy commissioner's launch of a preliminary inquiry following several complaints that Harper compiled a mailing list of Jewish Canadians.


http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2007/10/12/dion-harper.html

The Jewish thing is a none starter and only serves to distract from the other two. It should not have been mentioned. Two Out Of Three Ain’t Bad though. My only complaint is why was released on a Friday afternoon and not earlier in the week? Something has happened to the Liberals late this week. Their messaging today is hundred times better than what it has been. It is clearer and more sophisticated.

Liberals Carbon Fee Plan: I like it

"Let me give you the two bottom lines of this plan: there will be no carbon tax and the money will stay in Alberta," he told the crowd. "If there is a place in the world where there is much to gain in bringing the environment and the economy together, it is Alberta."
While the Liberal environment policy would penalize industries that don't reduce emissions, the money would remain in the province to pay for research, he explained.
"High calibre research institutions like the University of Alberta and the Edmonton Research Park have the potential to become ground zero for a revolution in environmental innovation."
Alberta companies and universities could also make money by creating new ways to reduce emissions, he said.

"If we make Fort McMurray sustainable, we can export that know-how to the world, and by cutting megatonnes of emissions, we are going to make megatonnes of money."
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gy1WcOdHbkuISh22im7JHtHJ524A

I have always found the Liberals carbon fee plan politically clever. It also has the potential to be pretty good policy. I think they could do without the “megatonnes” of money line though.

Liberals roll out substantive Afghan Talking points.

"I think we can't succeed in Afghanistan if NATO is not working," he said. "It can't be the burden of a few countries if you have a coalition of 27 countries," he said.
Dion said that every month Canada delays is a mistake that makes it more difficult for NATO to find a replacement for the Canadian mission.
Extending the mission indefinitely also threatens the future of NATO because other members will hestitate to participate in missions if they see that a country accepts a two-year mission and ends up staying forever, he said."

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.html?id=e7815bd0-e5ac-4755-874c-d7467897e079&k=8910

Wow at long last substantive talking points. The childish and silly “its their turn” has morphed into something much more weighty. It has become the following: If other NATO countries are unwilling to share the economic, political, and military costs of deploying in the South, the mission is doomed. Either way, Canada should leave the south. Either because someone else has assumed the burden or no one has and the mission is doomed to fail.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Conservatives at 40 Liberals at 28.

According to Don Martin a new poll due out tomorrow will show the Conservatives at 40% Liberals at 28. What this means is that Dion would be crazy to vote against the throne speech next week and yet further proof that the Liberals have to move beyond the same old same old and propose bold new policy.

Bravo Premier Calvert

“Premier Lorne Calvert headed straight to health matters in the heartland of medicare yesterday when he promised a new universal drug plan, saying people shouldn't have to choose between paying rent and getting medication.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20071012.SASK12/TPStory/National

“Deep” Corporate Tax Cuts: Bad Policy

The last thing Canada needs is “deep” corporate tax cuts. http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071012/corporate_taxes_071012/20071012?hub=QPeriod
A small reduction, such as the one the Conservatives are suggesting, will do just fine thank you very much. The Canadian corporate earnings are higher than pretty much everywhere and cost of doing business in Canada is cheaper than in Britain, the US, Italy, Germany, Japan, France.

Even the timing of the announcement sucks. The lead Story tonight is bound to be Al Gore’s sharing the Nobel Price followed by the announcement of the Afghan advisory group.

To the Liberals: Go Big

According to a new Angus Reid poll neither Canadians, nor Liberals give Dion much of a chance in any future if an election were called today and such pessimism is not confined solely to the here and now. Only 9% of Canadians and 18% of Liberals think Dion will eventually become PM. http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/28574/canadians_liberals_assess_dions_chances Who can blame them? The Liberals are in disarray and the Liberals lack any kind of overarching vision. Canadians have no idea what it means to be Liberal anymore and until they do they are unlikely to return Liberals to power anytime soon.

There is no time for such soul searching now though. The Liberals will hav to define themselves by the choices they make. They will have no choice but to develop bold new policy and take that existential leap by presenting it to the public.

The Conservatives are Going to Hoist the Liberals by Their Own Kyoto Petard

Canada is not going to meet its 2012 Kyoto targets without purchasing a lot carbon credits and I have a feeling that most Canadians are about as enthusiastic as I am about that, i.e., not at all. The Conservatives are going to call the Liberals on this on Tuesday.

Dion should have made the Conservatives intellectually dishonest and completely useless intensity based plan the issue, but alas. Instead he made Kyoto issue. As a result, past Liberal failings are in play and so too is the aforementioned unpalatable solution.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Green Party of Canada Wants Marijuana to Be Legalized

"Jared Giesbrecht, Justice Critic for the Green Party, added that the 2002 Senate Special Committee on Drugs and examples from European countries have led the Green Party to the conclusion that it is time to legalize the adult use of marijuana, developing a taxation rate for the substance similar to that of tobacco."

http://www.greenparty.ca/en/releases/11.10.2007