Reading the polls, both provincial and national, this is how I see things breaking down if a federal election was held today.
I see the Conservatives gaining at the expense of the Liberals in BC, making solid gains in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc, loosing some ground to the Liberals in the 905 as a result of some NDP voters migrating to the Liberals and loosing ground to the Liberals in Newfoundland.
As for the Liberals, I think they will pick up seats from both the NDP and Conservatives in the 905 and 416, pick up 2 seats from the Conservatives in Newfoundland , and pick up 3 seats from the Bloc as result of decrease in the Bloc vote in Quebec. On the flip side, the Liberals should loose ground to the NDP in Northern Ontario and as mentioned ground to the Conservatives in BC.
The NDP will loose seats to the Liberals in the 416 and 905 and loose two seats to the Conservatives in BC. However, these looses should be offset by gains in Northern Ontario at the expense of the Liberals and picking up a seat an extra seat in Quebec.
The Bloc will by far the worst of any of the major parties. I see their body of support slipping just enough to allow a stagnet Liberal party to regain three seats and they will loose voters on the left to the NDP and voters on the right to the Conservatives. The NDP should be to pick up Jeanne Le Bar and the Conservative will make major gains outside of Montreal at the Bloc's expense.
Conservatives 143
Liberals 100
Bloc 34
NDP 29
Independents 2
BC
Conservatives 23 (+6)
NDP 8 (-2)
Liberals 5 (-4)
Alberta
Conservatives 28
Saskatchewan
Conservatives 13 (+1)
Liberals 1 (-1)
Manitoba
Conservatives 9 (+1)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberals 1 (-2)
Ontario
Liberals 56 (+2)
Conservatives 39 (-1)
NDP 11 (-1)
Quebec
Bloc 34 (-17)
Conservatives 23 (+13)
Liberals 15 (+2)
NDP 2 (+2)
Independents 1
New Brunswick
Liberals 5 (-1)
Conservatives 4 (+1)
NDP 1
Novo Scotia
Liberals 6
Conservatives 2 (-1)
NDP 2
Independents 1 (+1)
PEI
Liberals 4
Newfoundland
Liberals 6 (+2)
Conservatives 1 (-2)
NWT
NDP
Yukon
Liberals
Nunavut
Conservatives (+1) Liberals -1
Conservatives
1) Conservatives pick up Richmond from Liberals
2) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
3) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
4) Conservatives pick up North Vancouver from Liberals
5) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
6) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
7) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
8) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Independent (Blair Wilson)
1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
2) Conservatives pick up British Columbia Southern Interior from NDP
1) Conservatives pick up Berthier Masinonge from Bloc
2) Conservatives pick up Saint Maurice from Bloc
3) Conservatives pick up Trois-Rivières from Bloc
4) Conservatives pick up Chicoutimi-Le Fjord from Bloc
5) Conservatives pick up Vaudreuil-Soulanges from Bloc
6) Conservatives pick up Brome-Missisquoi from Bloc
7) Conservatives pick up Compton-Stanstead from Bloc
8) Conservatives pick up Richmond-Arthabuska from Bloc
9) Conservatives pick up Shefferd from Bloc
10) Conservatives pick up Quebec from Bloc
11) Conservatives pick up Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine from Bloc
12) Conservatives pick up Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia from Bloc
13) Conservatives pick up Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord from Bloc
Liberals
1) Liberals pick up St John’s East from Conservatives
2) Liberals pick up Avalon from Conservatives
3) Liberals pick up Mississauga Streetsville from Conservatives
4) Liberals pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives
5) Liberals pick up Ancaster-Dundas from Conservatives
6) Liberals pick up St. Catharines from Conservatives
1) Liberals pick up Trinity-Spadina from NDP
2) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP
3) Liberals pick up Hamilton Mountain from NDP
4) Liberals pick up Ottawa Center from NDP
5) Liberals pick up London-Fanshawe from NDP
1) Liberals pick up Ahuntsic from the Bloc
2) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc
3) Liberals pick up Brosserd La Praire from Bloc
NDP
1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
1) NDP pick up Oshawa from Conservatives
2) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives
1) NDP pick up Jeanne Le Bar from the Bloc
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16 comments:
Excuse me but is there a poll that came out this weekend that I do not know. Can you please direct me to the poll that you are referring to?
Thank You!
How does one "loose" a seat?
With a crowbar? A wrench? Some WD-40?
Anon:
"How does one "loose" a seat?"
"With a crowbar? A wrench? Some WD-40?"
This is a great one very funny LOL,LOL.
To start
You can reference all the polls that have conducted in the last two years here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40th_Canadian_federal_election
Election prediction project should also be looked at.
http://www.electionprediction.org/
Honestly, I can't agree with many of your Liberal pick-up picks ... especially not the ones in Montreal for pete's sake. The rural Ontario ones might be the safest calls, but I don't see knocking off all 5 of those NDP incumbents, I sure don't see knocking off any of the 3 Bloc incumbents in Quebec after the CROP polls, and I think Kingsway is a stretch too. Newfoundland should be interesting to watch though.
Brossard NO
St. Catherines NO
Stoney Creek NO
Hamilton Mountain NO
Papineau NO
Further to my comment at 8:38, if the Liberals don't vote against the Conservative immigration changes this week, their seat count in Toronto 416 and 905 could even go in the opposite direction.
Sorry but as a voter in London-Fanshawe I feel pretty confident in saying there is no way this seat will go back to the Liberals. You simply cannot use national polls to predict local outcomes. Irene Mathyssen in London-Fanshawe always polls well ahead of her party and is very well liked by her constituents.
Glen Pearson, who ran against Irene last time is now the MP in the neighbouring riding. It was only Pearson's community profile that made it close last time. The new Liberal candidate is a country music station radio host and a virtual unknown.
Irene has proven herself to be effective--her last newsletter to constituents highlighted the federal dollars into the riding since her election--and if anything is likely to be re-elected by twice the margin of victory or better than the last time.
>>>>> Honestly, I can't agree with many of your Liberal pick-up picks ... especially not the ones in Montreal for pete's sake.
Those seats in question have all traditionally voted Liberal, the Bloc was the only other party that was competitive in those ridings and they are down too and the Crop poll had its problems. Only 74 people were non Francophones.
>>>> The rural Ontario ones might be the safest calls, but I don't see knocking off all 5 of those NDP incumbents,
Those seats are Liberal seats by and large and see some of them going NDP. NDP is going to be hurt inside the 416 and 905. Toronto in other words. They bleeding votes to Liberals and Greens.
>>>>> Kingsway is a stretch too.
What because of on by-election.
The seat will go NDP 33% or Liberal 43%. It will not go Conservative 18%.
>>>>> NFLD
The margins in Newfoundland are not great for the Conservatives. An angry Danny Williams should spell doom for a few Conservative candidates.
>>>> Further to my comment at 8:38, if the Liberals don't vote against the Conservative immigration changes this week, their seat count in Toronto 416
1) The Conservative immigration changes are nothing but a lot of hot air.
2) Who in god's name is going to take out Liberal seats inside the 416. NDP are down there and some of those voters look to be headed the Liberals way.
>>>> Brossard NO
Traditionally voted Liberal, but you are right it will be tough. The Tories could take this one.
>>>> St. Catherines NO
Economy hit hard here. Conservatives barely won it the last time.
>>>> Stoney Creek NO
I have that as a NDP hold. You think it is going Liberal?
>>>> Hamilton Mountain NO
It will be tough. The NDP is down in Ontario and this could allow the Liberals to take a close one.
>>>>> Papineau NO
Traditionally Liberal seat, Bloc are down and a big name.
London-Fanshawe
Pat O'Brien's old riding. It will be close three way battle.
>>>> You simply cannot use national polls to predict local outcomes.
You can to some degree, but in this case I am not. NDP is trouble in Ontario. Most polls put them below what they took in the last election and that is with them way up in Quebec.
"Traditionally a Liberal seat" --with a weak leader, a weak organization, and having weak positioning from not having voted in the Commons for months at a time -- is probably not going to cut it once the campaign starts, I fear, Koby.
>>>> A weak organization
In Papineau with Trudeau. your kidding. This is not Chicoutimi-Le Fjord we are talking about.
>>>> not having voted in the Commons for months at a time
The Canadian people care no more about this then they do about Cadman or Bernier.
>>>> -- is probably not going to cut it once the campaign starts, I fear, Koby.
Drop the partisan talking points and look at matters seriously
I wasn't just talking about Papineau though, but about all your other answers e.g., at 12:53.
It just read like your answer for why most of those seats would return to the Liberal fold is because they "traditionally vote Liberal", which alone will not be good enough this time.
So, if I were only talking about Papineau, I can see how you would read that as partisan talking points. Papineau may have a good local organization. Other ridings' organizations may not be what they were. And if the national campaign is weak it hurts everyone.
On the not voting, though, I believe it's hurting more in some pockets of support than others (especially some of the communities Liberals have traditionally counted as their base). But I'm sorry to say that elsewhere people are just laughing at it (and not in a nice way).
The answer is that the Liberals are not yet in a position to bring down the government and replace it, but then really ... whose fault is that? The groups whose issues weren't voted on may start to have a hard time seeing why their interests should become subordinated to the interests of the Liberal Party and Caucus whenever it gets to decision-time.
Probably unfair to load all this on you when you've taken the time to do a thoughtful projection.
“traditionally vote Liberal"
There are many ridings that have traditionally voted Liberal that I do not see the Liberals having any chance of picking up. The only ridings I think the Liberals have a chance of winning is those seats that they already hold by large margins and close two way races with the Bloc. Why? Well however bad things are for the Liberals, things are worse for the Bloc and I do not see the Conservatives picking up between 11,000 to 15,000 votes in Ahuntsic, Bourassa, Honoré-Mercier, and Laval-Les Îles. Maybe the Pierre Ducasse puts the NDP over the top in Hull-Aylmer.
As for the Liberals, the party is a complete mess, but they are not the only ones in trouble. NDP is down outside of Quebec, Bloc are down and the Ontario economy stinks.
>>>> Probably unfair to load all this on you when you've taken the time to do a thoughtful projection.
Thanks
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