Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Lamoureux's victory is an Aberration: Conservatives on Verge of Majority

The Conservatives are on the cusp of a majority. They have 145 seats as it is, more money than the other parties combined, they are better organized than the other parties, they dominant the political agenda, and finally they control the public purse. Kingston and the Islands, Mississauga South, Ajax—Pickering, Vancouver South, Esquimalt Juan de fuca, Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe, Malpeque, Brampton—Springdale, Welland, Brampton West, Edmonton Strathcona are all within their reach and it is easy to see the Conservatives taking a few more 905 seats that just a few years ago looked like save Liberal seats.

As for the Liberals, Kevin Lamoureux's victory was an aberration. Lamoureux won by promising to be tough on crime. In other words, he won by promising to be a Conservative in riding that would never vote for a real Conservative. People in virtually every other riding have no such hang up and Conservatives own crime as an issue. For many Canadians, the Liberals are like old friend that they no longer see much of any more or have much in common with and so give little thought to. The Liberals are short on cash, volunteers and it goes without saying ideas. The jig is up. The Liberals are no longer able to get by on nostalgia and regional divisions. While Ignatieff speaks glowingly of Pearson, the Canada Health Act and CPP, voters recongize the attempted bait-and-switch know that when the Liberals speak of "social justice" they do not mean a commitment to the truly popular notion of universality but rather a commitment to means tested social programs, affirmative action, asymmetrical federalism, pay equity, the intellectual abortion that is collective rights and other policies that neither interest the middle class or have their support. Take away the Liberals commitment to "social justice" and Harper's populace facade and their is little difference between the two parties.


CanadianSense said...

Cut that out. You need to stop using reasonable talking points and logic on this side. I applaud your for willingness in raising unpopular theories and ideas for debate.

I find tolerance for dissenting views is not big thing on this side.

I have been talking about the immigration-ethnic, religious base that was Liberal in 2000. (Non-partisan study)

It's gone and it appears it is not returning.Pundits Guide has a list of seats within 5%.
Both WPG North and Vaughan were NOT on that list and they were taken.

EAP is playing a big part and the messaging CPC ridings get more projects is counter productive.

Want a rink, bridge elect the CPC! Is it only me?

Best of luck with your fellow Liberals on this post.

ck said...

Lamoureux won by promising to be tough on crime.

Isn't that the type of promise one running for office in a riding where the crime rate is pretty high should be making?

While there is cause to be concerned about a Harpercon majority, I wouldn't count on the east coast ridings you mention going conservative quite so fast. Plus, it looks like Peter MacKay is leaving, Central Nova will be up for grabs. The Harpercons' popularity in the East coast is pretty low.

Plus, even if the Harpercons do promise that silly hockey arena to Quebec City, there is no guarantee that will translate into Harpermania in La belle province. The provincial by-election yesterday in Kamouraska-Temiscouata proved that Quebecers tend to not be grateful necessarily--ask Jean Charest today.

Also, I wouldn't count on Fantino having staying power. A man who is pretty set in his ways, who has had positions of power as chief of police and OPP commissioner; he's used to running his own show and saying and doing what he likes. Does anyone think he will enjoy being micromanaged by the PMO? I think not.

All that to say that a Harpercon majority isn't quite a lock yet. Be wary. Be pragmatic. But it's not a foregone conclusion.