Saturday, April 12, 2008

Math for Laytonites

Last election the NDP took 7.5% of the popular vote in Quebec. Now polls consistently show the NDP at around 12% in Quebec. In other words, the NDP is up 4 to 5% in province with about a quarter of Canada’s voters. However, recent polls put the NDP below what they were in 2006 and hardly any poll since 2006 has showed the NDP rising above what the obtained in 2006. Ergo the NDP is bleeding voters elsewhere. This is certainly the case in greater Toronto. The NDP is loosing support both to the Liberals and the Greens there.

Toronto Center and Willowdale were not flukes; they are the future. The NDP is going to take it on the chin in the 905 and 416. If there was an election this spring chances are Layton might keep his seat, albeit barely, but Chow, Marston, Charlton and Nash will loose their seats.

The party needs to change focus.

1) The NDP party brass is delusional if they think they can A) utter the following and not be damaged by it and B) think it is actually a sound “gameplan”. “Damaging Harper and the Conservatives on ethical issues like the Cadman mess mainly helps the Grits, and that’s not in our gameplan.” It may be too late to do anything now but, if possible revive the Cadman thing in committee.

2) Stop talking about the economy. Does Layton honestly believe that Globe and Mail, and Can west global are going to give them a fair airing? I hope to god not and by the way this is not 1988.

3) Go back to its rural Western roots and focus on taking back voters that had abandoned them for the Reform Party in 1993 and then have gone on to vote Conservative. It still polls far better in BC and Sask than it ever has in Ontario, especially Toronto. They should also look to be fighting it out with the Conservatives to pick up the Liberal votes that have slowly been bleeding away over the years to both themselves and the Conservatives in Northern Ontario.

4) Look to Europe. The NDP used to try to import socially democratic ideas from Europe. What the hell happened? What little is left of that tradition is hardly stressed. Layton spends just as much time talking about the “weaponization of space”, as if foreign policy was somehow their bread and butter, as the party’s pharmacare plan.

Clarity of message and easy to understand policy is all important. 5 examples come readily to mind. Some are already part of the NDP platform.

A) National minimum wage

B) A national pharmacare program based upon the one currently available in the UK

C) 4 weeks paid vacation for all Canadians

D) dental care as part of health care

E) Universal Day Care for kids aged 1-5

5) Dump Layton; replace him with Muclair or even better Joe Comartin


Johnathon said...

Robert Fife, the leftist loon on CTV said it best yesterday.

The Liberal Party of Canada (really the Liberal Party of Ontario)does NOT believe Nanos numbers.


When Nick tries to portray his polls ac ACCURATE you really have to give your head a shake.

He only polls 210 people and he considers that ACCURATE?

Gimme a break.

Do a poll where you poll 3 million people and then I will believe it.

Nick's true numbers will come out when the election campaign begins.

Then you will see the Conservatives in majority territory.

Anonymous said...

It would be better if the Liberals stopped looking foolish and kept Dion out of the house during question period.
Both Ignatief and Rae are better at making a point or asking a question.
I have noticed that Bob Rae seems to be tired latley. I hope his health is okay.


Koby said...

Johnathon. Only someone with no knowledge of the outside world, and political philosophy would describe Robert Fife as "leftist loon".

Now, does anyone in their right mind believe that the Liberals are at 50% in Ontario. Good god no.

However, Nanos's track is second to none. Only a brain dead conservative supporter would accuse him of cooking the books.

As to the NDP's health in Ontario generally, do the math.

Johnathon said...

You say in one breathe that the Liberals are not at 50% in Ontario.

Then in your next breathe you say that Nanos isn't cooking the books.

Which is it?

Koby said...

Let me introduce to you a new concepts, viz., false dictomry.