Monday, September 29, 2008

Seat Projections

Two things will determine whether the Conservatives end up with a majority. 1) How much of the Liberal vote in the 905 migrates over to the Conservatives? 2) How badly damaged are the Conservatives by Harper’s attack on the arts community and his get dumb when it comes to crime plan in Quebec?

My prediction as of right now.


Conservatives 151 (+27)
Liberals 75 (-28)
Bloc 45 (-6)
NDP 35 (+6)
Independents 2 (+1)

Conservatives 26 (+9)
NDP 7 (-3)
Liberals 3 (-6)


Conservatives 28


Conservatives 13 (+1) Liberals 1 (-1)


Conservatives 10 (+2)
NDP 4 (+1)
Liberals (-3)


Liberals 39 (-15)
Conservatives 50 (+10)
NDP 17 (+5)


Bloc 45 (-6)
Conservatives 14 (+4)
Liberals 13
NDP 2 (+2)
Independents 1

New Brunswick

Liberals 4 (-2)
Conservatives 5 (+2)

Novo Scotia

Liberals 5 (-1)
Conservatives 3
Independents 1 (+1)


Liberals 4


Liberals 5 (+1)
NDP 1 (+1)
Conservatives 1 (-2)






Conservatives (+1) (Liberals -1)

Conservatives: seat pick ups

1) Conservatives pick up Newton North Delta from Liberals
2) Conservatives pick up Saint-Boniface from Liberals
3) Conservatives pick up Nunavut from Liberals
4) Conservatives pick up Fredericton from Liberals
5) Conservatives pick up Brant from Liberals
6) Conservatives pick up Huron-Bruce from Liberals
7) Conservatives pick up Richmond from the Liberals
8) Conservatives pick up North Vancouver from the Liberals
9) Conservatives pick up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from Liberals
10) Conservatives pick up Newmarket Aurora from Liberals
11) Conservatives pick up West Nova from Liberals
12) Conservatives pick up Madawaska-Restigouche form Liberals
13) Conservatives pick up Mississauga South from Liberals
14) Conservatives pick up Oakville from Liberals
15) Conservatives pick up Winnipeg South Centre from Liberals
16) Conservatives pick up Kenora from Liberals
17) Conservatives pick up London West from Liberals
18) Conservatives pick up Mississauga Erindale from Liberals
19) Conservatives pick up Brampton West form Liberals
20) Conservatives pick up Oak Ridge Markham from Liberals

1) Conservatives pick up West Vancouver from Greens

1) Conservatives pick up Vancouver Island North from NDP
2) Conservatives pick up British Columbia Southern Interior from NDP
3) Conservatives pick up Surrey North from NDP
4) Conservatives pick up New Westminster-Coquitlam from NDP

1) Conservatives pick up Brome-Missisquoi from Bloc
2) Conservatives pick up Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine from Bloc
3) Conservatives pick up Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia from Bloc
4) Conservatives pick up Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord from Bloc

Liberals: seat pick ups

1) Liberals pick up St John's South Mount Pearl from Conservatives

1) Liberals pick up Parkdale-High Park from NDP

1) Liberals pick up Papineau from the Bloc

NDP: seat pick ups

1) NDP pick up Churchill from Liberals
2) NDP pick up Nickel Belt from Liberals
3) NDP pick up Algoma-Manitoulin Kapuskasing from Liberals
4) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Rainy River from Liberals
5) NDP pick up Sudbury from Liberals

1) NDP pick up Oshawa from Conservatives
2) NDP pick up Thunder Bay Superior North from Conservatives
(Liberal win 2006)
3) NDP pick up Vancouver Kingsway from Conservatives
(Liberal win in 2006, Emerson)
4) NDP pick up St. Johns East from Conservatives

1) NDP pick up Gatineau from the Bloc

Bloc: seat pick ups

1) Bloc pick up Jonquière-Alma from Conservatives


James Curran said...

And you base this on what exactly? You left out Hamilon East Stoney Creek...Liberal. Haldimand Norfolk, Liberal. Hamilton Mountain, Liberal. St. Catharines name a few.

Christian Conservative said...

Hey James, this is the sort of seat projection I thought would happen when we talked after the MC Show.

Two weeks is still a long time, mind you.

Of course, you forgot one other Conservative pickup... Guelph from the Liberals. ;-)

Koby said...

Given their numbers, there is no way the Liberals take Haldimand Norfolk. The Liberals are polling in the mid twenties. They will be lucky to pick up any seats.

As for Guelph, it is certainly in play. As are a number of other seats.

James Curran said...

First of all, in Ontario, we are polling in the mid to high 30's. Second of all, in that riding, Eric is polling higher than Finley.

Koby said...

>>>> First of all, in Ontario, we are polling in the mid to high 30's.

Yes and so are the Conservatives and the Conservatives have been ahead in most polls. A 3 to 4% point swing in the province will mean a huge change over in the number of seats.

>>> Second of all, in that riding, Eric is polling higher than Finley.

Good I would love to see Finley loose.