Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Gun Registry: Some thoughts

1)The cost of registry is about a billion dollars. The 2 billion dollar figure bantered around by the Conservatives is a lie. Whatever the cost though, saying these cost overruns justify disbanding the registry now is akin to saying that if a bridge goes over budget than it should be blown up upon completion. By the way, it costs around 3 million a year to register long guns and if the Conservatives had of continued to collect monies for these guns, then there would be no cost to tax paper whatsoever.

2) People still get murdered by long guns in this country. Indeed, 88% of women killed with gun were killed with a shotgun or rifle.

3) The sharp distinction between "law abiding" firearm owners and criminals is a false distinction. From 2005 to Sep 2009 there have been 9,340 firearm licences have been revoked. Some developed a mental illness. Others committed crimes of various sorts. In other words, over time a sizable number of "law abiding" firearm owners become statistically much more likely to poise a danger to others, particularly their spouses. Little wonder than that while the vast majority of gun owners want the registry gone, 77% of those living with a gun owner want it kept. As another blogger, Luke, identified the crux of the matter. "If person had their firearm licence revoked and their firearms are not registered how would the authorities ensure proper disposal of the firearms?"

4) There is also the issue of suicide to consider. For every homicide in Canada there are 6 or more suicides. The likelihood that one will commit suicide goes up significantly if there is a firearm in the home.

5) All the evidence is consistent with the gun registry having worked. To wit:

The suicide rate in Canada peaked at 15.2 in 1978, dipped below 12 for the first time in 32 years in 2000 and reached a post 1970 low of 11.3 in 2004.

The average suicide rate per year between 1970 and 1976 was 13.35, between 1977 and 1983 it was 14.5, between 1984 and 1990 it was 13.1, between 1991 and 1997 it was 13 and between 1998 to 2004 it was 12.

The number of suicides by firearm in Canada dropped from a high of 1287 in 1978 to a low of 568 in 2004. There was an average of 1033 fire arm suicides per year between 1970 and 1976, 1197 between 1977 and 1983, 1084 between 1984 and 1990, 970 between 1991 and 1997 and 682 between 1998 and 2004.

The number of accidental shooting deaths in Canada stood at 143 in 1971 and has generally declined since then; a low of 20 was reached in 2000. There was an average of 117 accidental shooting deaths per year between 1970 and 1976, 70 between 1977 and 1983, 62.3 between 1984 and 1990, 50.1 between 1991 and 1997 and 28.1 between 1998 and 2004.

The rate of homicide in Canada peaked in 1975 at 3.03 per 100,000 and has dropped since then, reaching lower peaks in 1985 (2.72 per 100,000) and 1991 (2.69 per 100,000) while declining to 1.73 per 100,000 in 2003. The average murder rate between 1970 and 1976 was 2.52, between 1977 and 1983 it was 2.67, between 1984 and 1990 it was 2.41, between 1991 and 1997 it was 2.23 and between 1998 and 2004 it was 1.82.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

The last time I looked, mental illness is not a crime. I wait with baited breath for you to post statistics on the number of Canadians who died due to knife wounds. You'll find that far more homicides (including homicides where women are victims) occur where the murder weapon is a knife.

CanadianSense said...

The database has errors and it was developed to "xxxx" explain how it has done "xxxx".

Look up the AG Report, how much would it cost to "correct" those errors?

How will you FORCE those who are NOT in compliance?

1)Court and Jail?

Are you interested in locking up those farmers, duck hunters and aboriginals?

Calendonia ring a bell? Illegal smokeshops, border dispute?

Explain how you get the Aboriginal Population to comply and register their long guns.

The bridge comparison is faulty. If you "force" traffic on the bridge by diverting traffic from a safer road to justify the expense your bridge has some merit.

Those Police Chief required the database to be used for?

Manipulating Data?

The 88% stat, how many in total is that? 4-6 deaths per year? How is filling out a form and a fee going to STOP or reduce that death? (The reason for the registry)

Here is another flawed example. More people die from drunk drivers?

The urban problems of gangs do not use long rifles or register their illegal weapons. They never will.

Chasing Old Macdonalds or Elmer Fudd to make urban voters feel better still makes NO sense.

Koby said...

"The last time I looked, mental illness is not a crime."

Please argue that judges should not have the power to curtail peoples access to guns when they have been shown to be poise a serious risk to themselves and or other people. People on psych wards should not have access to heat.

"You'll find that far more homicides (including homicides where women are victims) occur where the murder weapon is a knife."

And you will find that in the US there are far more homicides committed with a gun than knife. Maybe the US needs a gun registry. The number of gun related homicides -- domestic homicides committing with a long gun in particular, have dropped significantly over the last 15 years. Implying that this is reason why we need to scarp the gun registry is indeed a strange argument to make.

"More people die from drunk drivers?"

The 5 year period from 2000 to 2004saw 14,082 people killed in MVAs. That averages out to around 2800 a year. Around a quarter of those deaths were alcohol related. 700 people a year.

The number of people committing suicide in Canada has dropped since the introduction of the gun registry and that drop is due solely to the decrease in the number of gun related suicides. The number of 15 to 19 year old males killing themselves in particular is down. We are not talking about 700 people. We are talking about half that.

I assume you would laud Canada if the number of people killed by drunk drivers halved.

"Chasing Old Macdonalds or Elmer Fudd to make urban voters feel better still makes NO sense."


Yes it would be great if Native rights were abolished and there was 100% compliance. However, you are missing the point. Going forward the percentage of guns registered will increase, it costs us nothing right now and despite the lack of compliance the stats are consistent with it working. As for what punishment to meat out, I prefer hefty fines.

CanadianSense said...

If the Rule of Law is not being applied in Caledonia or our border why do you think imposing Fines will make a difference?

Revenue stream will reduces the cost?

The problems with the LG Registry are substantial it would cost millions to audit and fix those mistakes.

It will cost millions to chase thousands who will refuse to be compliant tying up our system courts etc)

Your financial argument of three million is flawed because the existing system currently in use is out of date and not safe to rely on for accuracy.

We have lost over $ 2 Billion in taxes for illegal smokes. Their is NO politicial will to get the Aboriginals to register their Long Guns. Full STOP.

It is an illusion ANY political Party has the cojones to tackle the issues. * Provincial Liberals/Federal CPC.

Koby said...

The registry is already in place. A nominal fee associated with registring a long gun would mean that the system would pay for itself.

As for any policing costs, they were associated with getting people to register old guns. Getting them to register new guns is not going to be a problem.

"Your financial argument of three million is flawed because the existing system currently in use is out of date and not safe to rely on for accuracy."

I did not know that you liked the police argument checking the registry x number times a day argument. I never did. The point is that however imperfect the registry the numbers are consisent with it working and given that the registry costs nothing, it falls upon the gun nuts to prove that the numbers are correlation and not causation.


"We have lost over $ 2 Billion in taxes for illegal smokes. Their is NO politicial will to get the Aboriginals to register their Long Guns. Full STOP."

I have said time and time again Canada's native policy is retarded, but what the hell does this have to do with long gun registry.

CanadianSense said...

Koby,

Who do you think OWNS/used long guns? They are NOT all registered the DATABASE is out of date and NOT accurate.

Gangs in Toronto are not registering or using Rifles from the registry.

Why is using a database that is out of date and not accurate worthwhile?

Koby, what does LONG Guns have to do with Aboriginals and lack of political will to apply Rule of LAW, they are connected.

No one is trying to "fix" the problem. This is containment and it may escalate before we move ahead.

You are pretending sending Fines in the MAIL to thousands of Canadians is going to change anything.

The LG Registry was a very bad policy introduced/used by the Liberals for political advantage as a result of a tragedy.

Now the tables have turned and the CPC are using their support to remove this bad policy and the opposition who are in the MAJORITY won't risk going to the Polls and can't whip their rural MP's.

Those MP's are into their own survival vs their Party.

ridenrain said...

Didn't we already determine by a free vote in parliament, that Canadians did not want the registry?

If Liberals need to buy votes in Toronto, they can have a provincial registry or ban, since that's where it will end up anyways.

Koby said...

"Why is using a database that is out of date and not accurate worthwhile?"

I said why. You seem hell bent on not addressing what has happened since incomplete registry was inroduced.

The suicide rate in Canada peaked at 15.2 in 1978, dipped below 12 for the first time in 32 years in 2000 and reached a post 1970 low of 11.3 in 2004.

The average suicide rate per year between 1970 and 1976 was 13.35, between 1977 and 1983 it was 14.5, between 1984 and 1990 it was 13.1, between 1991 and 1997 it was 13 and between 1998 to 2004 it was 12.

The number of suicides by firearm in Canada dropped from a high of 1287 in 1978 to a low of 568 in 2004. There was an average of 1033 fire arm suicides per year between 1970 and 1976, 1197 between 1977 and 1983, 1084 between 1984 and 1990, 970 between 1991 and 1997 and 682 between 1998 and 2004.

The number of accidental shooting deaths in Canada stood at 143 in 1971 and has generally declined since then; a low of 20 was reached in 2000. There was an average of 117 accidental shooting deaths per year between 1970 and 1976, 70 between 1977 and 1983, 62.3 between 1984 and 1990, 50.1 between 1991 and 1997 and 28.1 between 1998 and 2004.

The rate of homicide in Canada peaked in 1975 at 3.03 per 100,000 and has dropped since then, reaching lower peaks in 1985 (2.72 per 100,000) and 1991 (2.69 per 100,000) while declining to 1.73 per 100,000 in 2003. The average murder rate between 1970 and 1976 was 2.52, between 1977 and 1983 it was 2.67, between 1984 and 1990 it was 2.41, between 1991 and 1997 it was 2.23 and between 1998 and 2004 it was 1.82. The numbers are consistent with the registry, however imperfect, working. If it can be improved, great. But registering half the guns in Canada is better than registering none at all.


"Gangs in Toronto are not registering or using Rifles from the registry.""

So what. The registry helps reduce domestic homicides and suicides. It will not prevent some gang banger from carrying out a hit.

You do not seem to appreciate the irony of gun owners droning on about law abiding gun owners being targeted. Of course law abiding gun owners are targeted. Indeed, the registry works because sizable number of gun owners are law abiding and register their guns. Not one of plans to commit a crime in the future or decide to develop a mental illness, but a large number of them will and it is these gun owners that should be made to surrender their guns.

CanadianSense said...

You already lost the small on going concern of 3 million fallacy.

The database need millions to fix.

Now you ATTEMPT ti link suicide rates with long guns?

What is the ACTUAL NUMBER of suicides in Canada and break them down by method.

You than go into the WORSE CASE scenario and suggest the Registry will be used to sieze guns from "mental" owners.

How many cases are in the books do you have since the LG registry was implemented of the Registry used to prevent a SINGLE suicide or murder?

link?

If there WAS a case or a body of evidence to support the LG lobby chasing your tail, the STUDY would already exist.

No study exists to connect your talking points in regards to the LG registry.

It is simple grasping at straws to justify the bad policy that wasted over 1-2 Billions of taxpayers dollars. It does NOT PREVENT the criminal activity as the proponents claim. If it did your evidence would back you up and you have FAILED to make a case.

Instead you are reduced to manipulating STATS. Just like the Hockey STICK AGW, the recent 17% increase in Food banks I dispelled.

Anyone can play with STATS to make something look dramatic.

I can Manipulate STATS as well.
Since 1997 Foodbank use has climbed 0.01% when you factor growth of CDN population.
Less children are using it as well. Data I have collected from their website.

http://canadiansense.blogspot.com/2009/11/media-are-suckers-for-headlines.html

Koby said...

Again the numbers are consistent with the gun registry, however imperfect it might be, having worked. When it comes down to potentially saving lives verus fun with guns, there is no question who the onus is on. The gun nuts must explain away the numbers.

So I will say again. Explain away the numbers CS.

The suicide rate in Canada peaked at 15.2 in 1978, dipped below 12 for the first time in 32 years in 2000 and reached a post 1970 low of 11.3 in 2004.

The average suicide rate per year between 1970 and 1976 was 13.35, between 1977 and 1983 it was 14.5, between 1984 and 1990 it was 13.1, between 1991 and 1997 it was 13 and between 1998 to 2004 it was 12.

The number of suicides by firearm in Canada dropped from a high of 1287 in 1978 to a low of 568 in 2004. There was an average of 1033 fire arm suicides per year between 1970 and 1976, 1197 between 1977 and 1983, 1084 between 1984 and 1990, 970 between 1991 and 1997 and 682 between 1998 and 2004.

The number of accidental shooting deaths in Canada stood at 143 in 1971 and has generally declined since then; a low of 20 was reached in 2000. There was an average of 117 accidental shooting deaths per year between 1970 and 1976, 70 between 1977 and 1983, 62.3 between 1984 and 1990, 50.1 between 1991 and 1997 and 28.1 between 1998 and 2004.

By the way, it is painfully clear that when it comes to "Manipulating the numbers" you do not have a clue what you talking about. Needless to say, it would be best that you learn what it means for someone to "maunipulate the numbers" before you accuse someone of doing so.