Thursday, October 18, 2007

False Liberal Optimism

Yes the Liberals are within 3 or 4 points in most National polls. However this is no cause of optimism. The Liberal situation is dire and policy overhaul is needed.

About the polls 4 things should be noted. One, the Conservative Party has more potential for growth than the Liberals. While the Liberals have remained stuck at around 30 for almost 2 years, the Conservatives numbers are up and down, Two, the Bloc vote looks like it is soft and while there are signs the Conservatives are positioned to pick up a Bloc voters outside of urban Montreal, there is no signs that the Liberals stand to pick up any of the Bloc vote, inside urban Montreal or outside, if it indeed collapses. Three, the Conservatives have more money and better ground presence than the Liberals. Four, Conservative vote is more efficient than the Liberal vote. Now, granted if you take away Alberta most polls would show the Liberals leading in the rest of the country. However, what Liberal supporters forget if you take away Toronto, Conservatives are ahead in the rest of the country. Moreover the Conservatives are competitive in virtually every province now. Last election they were above 30% in every province except two. In Quebec they were at 24.6% and in Nova Scotia they were at 29.69%. By comparison, the Liberals were at 27.6% in BC, 15.3% in Alberta, 22.4% in Sask. 26% in Manitoba and 20.7% in Quebec. In other words, in terms of population and in terms of the Provinces, in half the country the Liberals are well under 30%.

If Dion and company think they can win the next election without a major policy overhaul, they are delusional. The Liberals can start by going back to the modern roots of the Liberal party, i.e., social democracy and social liberalism. The last time the Liberals captured the imagination of British Columbians, for example, was when Person and later Trudeau were pushing ahead with Medicare, CPP and liberalizing divorce and abortion laws, and kicking the police out of the country’s bedrooms. The Liberals have made a fuss about the Conservatives taking steps to confine Federal government spending to, really, funding the military. However, they have not proposed the very kind of policies that Harper seeks to outlaw. Propose a universal dental Care. Propose a national pharmacare program the way the NDP are. By the way, if the Liberals think the can win over the hearts and minds of Canadians by reintroducing a child care plan that does not even come close to addressing the problem of a lack of affordable child care in this country, they deserve to loose. Go universal, or do not bother. It is time to bring the era of conservative Liberalism to an end.


t said...

Right on !!! Add legalizing marijuana to the list of Big Policy Ideas! And how about a national youth program?

Koby said...

It would be popular in BC.

Hell, the last three polls show solid majority support legalization in the country as a whole and BC is much more favorably inclined than people in PEI and Alberta.

Scott Tribe said...


I don't mind you posting stuff critical of the Liberal Party or even of the leader; they certainly have deserved some criticism. What I get a tad annoyed at is you repeating that post either word for word in another blog's comment section (mine being a prime example this evening), and then blogging the same thing... or blogging your point first here, and then repeating it verbatim.

With all due respect, it gets annoying.

Koby said...

Scott I wrote your post first and then decided to turn it into a post.