Thursday, October 18, 2007

Liberal Prospects in BC; the Numbers

The Liberals are not in particularly good shape in BC. Their vote is very inefficient and in only one riding, Nina Grewal in Fleetwood-Port Kells, are they within striking distance (within 5,000 votes) of a Conservative MP. Needless to say, the Liberals are also in good shape to pick up David Emerson’s seat. By contrast, the Conservatives are well within striking distance of 5 Liberal MPs, Don Bell in North Vancouver, Blair Wilson, in West Vancouver, Raymond Chan in Richmond, Keith Martin in Esquimalt Juan de Fuca and Sukh Dhaliwal in Newton-North Delta.

The Liberals are in better shape when compared to the NDP. The NDP are within striking distance of Sukh Dhaliwal, and Keith Martin and they finished within 5,000 of David Emerson. However the Liberals are within striking distance of Bill Siksay in Burnaby Douglas and Peter Julian in Burnaby-New Westminster

Realistically, the high water mark the Liberals would be 11 seats in BC or 2 more than the won in 2006 and three more than they have now. On the flip side of things, the Liberals could be reduced to 3 seats in BC.

Update

I should have mentioned this right off the top.

1993 28.1 6 seats of 32 seats

1997 28.8 6 seats of 34 seats

2000 27.7 5 seats of 34 seats

2004 28.6 8 seats of 36 seats

2006 27.6 9 seats of 36 seats

The Liberal numbers in terms of the popular vote have been remarkably consistent for the province as a whole, but have gone up in places in the lower mainland at the expense of some of other parts of the province making the Liberal vote more efficient. I do not see any prospect for any kind of Liberal surge.

One has to go back all the way back to 1974 to see the Liberals above 30% in BC and the Liberals last won BC in 1968. That year they took 16 of 25 seats and took the popular vote with 41.6% of the vote. It should be noted that PCs were shut out that year and won a mere 18.9% of the vote the worst total in any province of Territory. By contrast the PCs won Alberta that year with 51% of the popular vote and 15 of 19 seats. The NDP had won BC in 1962, 63, 65 and 72. Outside of 1988, when the NDP took the province, since then, BC has been PC, Reform and Conservative.

4 comments:

burlivespipe said...

I don't disagree with your general theme, that the CONs have a stronger base and more potential for pickups. But I do think that both the 2004 and 2006 elections should be used to factor strengths and weaknesses.
While I don't discount that certain results in 2004 may have been influenced by a lot of NdP swing voters crossing to Liberals in the lower mainland, it is equally possible when the picture of Harper, who some say has drawn a moderate cartoon of himself, but who to many centre-left voters remains a scary figure. That may shift voter preference. It also is incumbent on a strong national campaign, which we didn't see in 2006. As to the NdP, they are fairly consistent and could see some pickups on the Island and a seat or two in the suburbs. It would be nice if Kamloops came into play again, because Hinton is a dinosaur. I don't expect that to happen, unless something dramatic occurs.

Koby said...

1993 28.1 6 seats of 32 seats
1997 28.8 6 seats of 34 seats
2000 27.7 5 seats of 34 seats
2004 28.6 8 seats of 36 seats
2006 27.6 9 seats of 36 seats

The Liberal numbers have been remarkably consistent for the province as a whole, but have gone up in places lower mainland at the expense of some of other parts of the province. I do not see any prospect for any kind of Liberal surge.

By the way, Hinton is ripe for the picking, but is not by the Liberals.

Mushroom said...

I don't live in BC but follow politics there somewhat. These are my points:

Lots of three man races in the Lower Mainland with the Grits the third man standing. I would also put James Moore's and Gary Lunn's seats into play. Mile 0 in Victoria believes that Anne Park Shannon can re-take Victoria. These are must wins for Dion to become PM when the final votes are counted.

We have thrown in the towel in the BC Interior and the Coastal regions. Dippers are working extremely hard there knowing they can make major gains there since 1988. At the same time, a whole new generation of voters have emerged there without seeing a red lawn sign :(

Koby said...

Victoria maybe.


The other two no. There is too much of spilt to the left of the Conservatives in both ridings and both Conservatives are long term MPs. James Moore is also well regarded and well liked.

6,000 plus votes is also a lot of votes to make up and the Liberals have not had any success in these ridings in the past.