Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Layton's attack the Liberals first Strategy is Stupid

Layton has chosen to focus his attacks and Ignatieff and not Harper. This is a strange strategy for three reasons. One, Harper is on the verge of a majority. Two, the number of close battle the NDP have with the Conservatives is far greater than the number of close battles the NDP have with the Liberals. Three, in most parts of the country, especially west of Ontario, voters are far more likely to move between the NDP and Conservatives than between the NDP and Liberals.

Tight NDP Conservative battles

New Westminster-Coquitlam
Surrey North
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
Western Arctic
Sault Ste. Marie
South Shore-St. Margaret's
Vancouver Island North

Tight NDP Liberal battles

Vancouver Kingsway
Winnipeg North

Tight Three way races

St. John's South-Mount Pearl


Anonymous said...

I don't think Layton is concerned about a Harper majority. He would like to replace the Liberals as official opposition. His strategy makes sense to him because he is counting on Harper doing serious damage to the Liberals. So, it is the combined effort from both the NDP and Conservatives that Layton is counting on.

Koby said...

There is no chance whatsoever that the NDP is going to overtake the Liberals this time around.

If the NDP is going to replace the Liberals as the official opposition in the near future, one thing has to happen this election. Layton needs to hold Harper to a minority. Otherwise, the Liberals will have 5 years to recover and any momentum the NDP might have in Quebec will be lost.

The Bloc and Liberals will likely be holding leadership races soon and only way the NDP can use that to their advantage is to hold Harper to a minority.