Saturday, April 02, 2011

Liberals should not be so quick to celebrate a NDP downturn

Virtually every poll shows the Conservatives are up and that they hold a 10 point lead in Ontario. Worse recent polls show the Conservatives are up in Quebec. If this holds, we are headed for the Conservative majority.

Despite all this, Liberal bloggers remain strangely optimistic. I do not share their optimism. Sure, there are some signs that the Liberals have made hay at the NDP's expense, Igantieff is not Dion and there is no Green Shift, but weak a NDP, especially in BC, helps the Conservatives a lot more than it helps shore up Liberal ridings in the 905. The following NDP ridings are in serious danger of going Conservative.

Edmonton Strathcona
Western Artic
Saut Ste Marie
St. John's East
Burnaby Douglas
New Westminster Coquitlam
Elmwood Transcona

Moreover, a weak NDP all but gives Esquimalt Juan De fuca to the Conservatives. Esquimalt Juan De fuca was a Keith Martin seat and not a Liberal seat.


Anonymous said...

I don't think most of the optimism is about the NDP turndown. I think it is about the fact that Ignatieff and the Liberals are running a good campaign, the money is coming in, and the press seems more positive toward the Liberal campaign than in recent elections.

By contrast, the polls are not encouraging - we all want to see a strong CPC downturn. But we still have four weeks to go and a lot can happen if the Liberals keep up their good effort.

Frankly Canadian said...

I totally agree Anon.,if Mr. Ignatieff stays consistant with his efforts and Mr. Harper continues to bobble, four weeks is a long time, we could very well see Mr. Harper start to implode.