Virtually every poll shows the Conservatives are up and that they hold a 10 point lead in Ontario. Worse recent polls show the Conservatives are up in Quebec. If this holds, we are headed for the Conservative majority.
Despite all this, Liberal bloggers remain strangely optimistic. I do not share their optimism. Sure, there are some signs that the Liberals have made hay at the NDP's expense, Igantieff is not Dion and there is no Green Shift, but weak a NDP, especially in BC, helps the Conservatives a lot more than it helps shore up Liberal ridings in the 905. The following NDP ridings are in serious danger of going Conservative.
Saut Ste Marie
St. John's East
New Westminster Coquitlam
Moreover, a weak NDP all but gives Esquimalt Juan De fuca to the Conservatives. Esquimalt Juan De fuca was a Keith Martin seat and not a Liberal seat.