Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Still a Conservative Majority, but NDP on the Move

Conservative pick ups

Kingston and the Islands from the Liberals
Brampton West from the Liberals
Brampton Springdale from the Liberals
Avalon from the Liberals
Madawaska-Restigouche from the Liberals
Vancouver South form the Liberals
Yukon from the Liberals
Winnipeg South Centre from the Liberals
Eglinton-Lawrence from the Liberals
York Center from the Liberals
Don Valley West from the Liberals
Ajax Pickering from the Liberals
Mississauga South from the Liberals
Richmond Hill from the Liberals
Guelph from the Liberals
London North Center from the Liberals
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe from the Liberals
Malpeque from the Liberals
Mississauga-Streetsville from Liberals
Bramalea-Gore-Malton from Liberals

NDP pick ups

Hull Aylmer from Liberals
Brossard-La Prairie from Liberals
Winnipeg North from the Liberals
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Saint John's Mount Pearl from the Liberals
Parkdale-High Park from the Liberals
Beaches-East York from the Liberals
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour from the Liberals
LaSalle-Émard from the Liberals
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine from the Liberals
Halifax West from the Liberals

Jeanne-Le Ber from the Bloc
Ahuntsic from the Bloc
Compton-Stanstead form the Bloc
Alfred-Pellan from the Bloc
Laval from the Bloc
Brome-Missisquoi from the Bloc
Drummond from the Bloc
Gatineau from the Bloc
Saint-Lambert from the Bloc
Shefford from the Bloc
Louis-Hébert from Bloc
Vaudreuil-Soulanges from Bloc
Rivière-des-Milles-Îles from Bloc
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin from Bloc
Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou from Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain from Bloc
Châteauguay-Saint-Constant from Bloc

Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier from Independent

Vancouver Island North from the Conservatives
Pontiac from the Conservatives
Surrey North from the Conservatives
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar from the Conservatives
Beauport-Limoilo from the Conservatives
Oshawa from the Conservatives
Jonquière-Alma from the Conservatives
Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles from Conservatives
South Shore-St. Margaret's from the Conservatives

Liberal pick ups

Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia

Green pick ups

Saanich-Gulf Islands from the Conservatives


Conservatives 156
NDP 74
Liberals 47
Bloc 30
Greens 1


Conservatives 20
Liberals 3
NDP 12
Greens 1


Cons 27


Conservatives 12
Liberals 1


Conservatives 10


Conservatives 64
Liberals 22
NDP 20


Bloc 30
Liberals 11
Conservatives 7
NDP 27


Conservatives 8
Liberals 1


Conservtives 3
Liberals 3


Liberals 2
Conservatives 2


Liberals 4
Conservatives 1








kirbycairo said...

This would be a sad sight to see the Cons have a one or two seat majority. Though it would make for some interesting votes.

L said...

This is the most realistic seat projection (vs. popular vote projection) that I have seen yet! It is all about who is viable in the ridings. I personally thing, sadly, that the CPC might come in at 152-3.

That said, it will be harder for a coaltion to take over, as the CPC outrage will be more vocal this time.

L said...

Saanich-Gulf Islands from the Conservatives

No, the greens will not win here. Gary will keep the riding.

lance said...

I'm curious about which Sask riding you foresee going to the NDP?

Koby said...


lance said...

Thank you. I figured it was that or DMCR. I live in SRB, I don't expect Nettie will win.

She's a nice, grand-motherly person and utterly dedicated to the NDP, but she wasted her shot against Kelly Block last time. If she was to win it would have been against the neophyte replacing Carol Skelton.

The demographics have changed vastly since 2008 especially in the rurals but also in the the urban area. SRB's urban component is probably the most affordable housing area in Saskatoon, normally NDP prime territory. Unfortunately for them Sask and Saskatoon are booming which means there are a _lot_ of new people moving back from Alberta and Ont. They are buying affordable homes in the SRB area of SW Saskatoon.

Not saying I'm right and you're wrong, just that the lay of the land sometimes reads different from the map.


Anonymous said...

Parkdale-High Park will stay Liberal. Kennedy is an MP with integrity and has worked hard in the riding. He has not resorted to the dirty campaign tactics of Peggy Nash.

Savant said...

Just a little something for people who are doing projections on polls to keep in mind.

In 2008, there were 7 pollsters polling nationally. When their last result before election day was compared to the election results, I noticed something very interesting.

They all underestimated Conservative support.

Not one pollster actually had the Tories polling higher than what they actually received at the ballot box. Furthermore, aside from Angus Reid (at 0.7% below), all the other pollsters were a of 2.7% or more below the final election tally for the Conservatives. Most polls are usually in the ±3% margin of error range, and it seems that almost all of them were at the far end of that range on the low side in 2008.

On the other side of the coin, for both the Liberals and NDP, a full 5 if the 7 pollsters overestimated the actual election outcome. For the Green party all the pollsters were 'high', and for the BQ all but one poll was within ±1% of the predicted outcome.

For whatever reason, projecting Conservative support always tends to be difficult.

Couple this with an NDP surge that is unprecedented in the history of Canadian politics, and you have an election that is going to be quite the ride to watch on Monday.

Eric said...

Well M3, I'm new here, so I have no idea about your algorithm, but I haven't yet seen a result which I favour more than yours.

Conservative majority, NDP opposition, BQ and the LPC less than relevant and the GPC invited to the 2015 debates sound good to me!

Jack said...

I'm waiting until the last polls are out before making a riding by riding prediction.

lance said...

The lay of the land differed from the map.