Prediction: Conservative Majority -- well sort of

This is a much harder election to call than 2008, but here it goes.


Conservative pick ups

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Kington and the Islands form the Liberals
Brampton West from the Liberals
Brampton Springdale from the Liberals
Avalon from the Liberals
Saint John's Mount Pearl from the Liberals
Madawaska-Restigouche from the Liberals

Western Artic from the NDP

NDP pick ups

Winnipeg North from the Liberals
Gatineau from the Bloc

Liberal pick ups

Ahuntsic from the Bloc
Jeanne-Le Ber from the Bloc
Brome-Missisquoi from Bloc
Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia from the Bloc



National

Conservatives 154
Liberals 73
Bloc 43
NDP 37
Independent 1


BC

Conservatives 23
Liberals 4
NDP 9


Alberta

Cons 27
NDP 1

Sask

Conservatives 13
Liberals 1

Man

Conservatives 9
NDP 4
Liberals 1


Ontario

Conservatives 55
Liberals 34
NDP 17

Quebec

Bloc 43
Liberals 18
Conservatives 11
NDP 2
Independent 1

NB

Conservatives 7
Liberals 2
NDP 1

NS

Liberals 5
Conservtives 4
NDP 2

PEI

Liberals 3
Conservatives 1

NFLD

Liberals 4
Conservatives 2
NDP 1

Yukon

Liberals

NWT

Conservatives

Nunavut

Conservatives

The bus driver Arthur becomes a Conservative and gives them a very slim majority indeed.

voter turnout 59%

NDP and Liberals later go on to merge